There’s nothing quite like watching a pro gamer crush a map that’s been a major struggle for almost everyone else. The ease and confidence displayed is downright impressive. So it comes as no surprise that we’ve witnessed a rise in competitive gaming, also known as e-sports.
Make no mistake—these aren’t the Atari arcade competitions of yesteryear. The games featured in today’s e-sports tournaments are sophisticated and complex, requiring extensive coaching at well-established training facilities to reach the elite levels of today’s e-sport stars. Think League of Legends (LoL), Counter-Strike 2, Dota 2, and Valorant, among many others; they’re all games people love to play and also love to watch others play.
The industry is now well established. Sanctioned tournaments and e-sports titles are plentiful, drawing in more and more spectators every year. We’ve offered it in our sportsbooks under e-sports betting for a few years now, but it has really ramped up in recent times.
With the unique nature of this newer betting market, it’s helpful to be aware of the psychology behind it. Covering everything from public bias to team dynamics, this article dives into some public influences that impact the e-sports betting lines at Ozoon Sportsbook to give you an edge with your next e-sport bet.
Public Bias
The No. 1 impact on e-sports betting odds is no surprise: it’s public bias. No sport is immune to it, but e-sports can be particularly vulnerable to hype at this stage in the game. When one team gets hot, people tune in and become superfans. The bigger fanbases become, the shorter and sharper their betting odds become. Everyone wants a piece of the action, and the demand definitely influences the betting lines.
An example of public bias in e-sports would be with the South Korean League of Legends (LoL) e-sports team, T1. This team has gone through many ups and downs over the years before reaching its legendary status. Since their inception in 2012, they’ve won a record six World Championships and are likely to be favoured to win again. The face of their team, midlaner Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) is a legend in the LoL community and has just under 9 million followers between Twitch, Instagram and YouTube. The entire T1 roster is fun and engaging in and outside of their streams, making them a very popular team. No other e-sport team has a fanbase as big as T1’s, and that will naturally create some public bias in the betting realm.
For that reason, match betting with T1 is not always worth the low payouts. They were—220 against Hanwha Life Esports and —700 against KT Rolster in the League of Legends Champions Korea 2026 season. For the first bet, you’d win a $100 payout on a $220 bet, and for the second bet you’d win a $100 payout on a —700 bet. That’s a lot of chalk.
Keep this mind when browsing the e-sports futures market. All of the big names will come with more chalk because of public bias. If you want to avoid it, you can consider betting on a less-known team to reach the final or semi-finals, or try to get in on the big-name teams before the masses get their money in.
Favourite-Longshot Bias
One type of public bias is favourite-longshot bias; this is when a Cinderella team emerges and beats the odds, making a deep run and impressing everyone in the process. People can’t help but root for these underdogs and it gets to the point where the bias can begin to impact the odds.
One team that fit this mold was OG in 2018. This was the year they had their incredible run at the International—the biggest Dota 2 tournament in the world. With players from Denmark, France, Finland, Australia and Israel, OG had two of their best players (Tal “Fly” Aizik and Gustaz “s4” Magnusson) drop out right before the qualifiers, leaving the team in a serious bind. They had to rebuild quickly and they did manage to secure Europe’s lone qualifying spot for the tournament.
Most people were impressed with that accomplishment and did not expect them to go any further. Not only did they survive the group of tournament favourites to reach the upper bracket, they won every series there en route to the grand finals. In the grand finals, they overcame near elimination and mounted multiple late comebacks to beat PSG.LGD to win the title.
With every improbable step OG took, more and more people tuned in and began to support them, fostering a healthy favourite longshot-bias in the process. The bias continued to pay off the following year, as OG defended their crown in the 2019 International too.
Brand-Name Teams vs. Underrated Squads
As the industry rose, companies began sponsoring e-sports teams or building their own, and as a result, more and more team names started to include the sponsor. This development enabled e-sports players to access top-of-the-line training facilities and coaches, while also offering businesses an opportunity to see millions of fans cheering for their brand names.
One company that was early to adopt an e-sports team was Samsung. The South Korean telecom giant sponsored Samsung Khan in 2000 and then eventually rebranded it to Samsung Galaxy (SSG) in 2013 for the company’s line of smartphones. The team competed in StarCraft, StarCraft II, and LoL.
Another example is with the aforementioned T1; the South Korean e-sports team started as Orion and became SK Telecom T1 in 2004 when the South Korean wireless carrier acquired them. Eventually, they removed SK Telecom from the name and became known as T1 for T1 Entertainment & Sports.
Naturally, brand-name teams always feel more corporate compared to under-the-radar teams with their non-branded names. PRX is a famous example of an indie-style e-sports team that was free to create their own brand and held on to it after partnering with many different companies.
While many bettors are attracted to underrated squads, the corporate-sponsored ones are safer bets in general. These teams have access to the very best coaching and training facilities and have rosters full of professional gamers. As a result, the corporate teams are less likely to have last-minute roster changes compared with the non-branded ones.
That being said, some bettors enjoy the high volatility that comes with the underrated squads. These teams are often untested and offer odds that reflect the inherent risk. Players who know how to identify the up-and-coming underrated teams from the over-hyped ones can make some money in the mid-tier tournaments. Use your intuition to guide your bets.
How Sportsbooks Adjust Lines
Sportsbooks are always trying to reach a state of equilibrium with their betting lines. In the ideal handicapper’s world, an equal amount of money would come in for both sides of a bet. You simply pay the winning bets with the money from the losing bets.
This is the reason why betting lines are always getting adjusted. If too much action comes in on one side, the sportsbook will adjust the line to encourage more betting on the other side. This reduces the risk of exposure and continues to happen until the odds are removed from the board. Keep in mind, when you place a bet, the odds you take are locked in and won’t change even when the lines fluctuate.
For futures betting, the heavy favourites’ odds shorten over time; for example if LoL fan favourite team, LYON was offered at +175 for a tournament, but too many people were betting on them, their odds may adjust to +160. New bets will be paid $160 on a $100-stake instead of $175.
Handicap betting and totals could be adjusted in two ways. The handicap/total could change; for example a +1.5 handicap could change to +2.0, or a 4.5-map total could change to a 5-map total. The line would move in the direction that encourages more betting on the less popular side.
Conversely, the vigorish, or payout odds, could change. For example if too many people take the ‘under’ for a 4.5-map total with —140 odds attached, the odds could change to —150 to encourage more betting on the ‘over’.
When the betting lines are being adjusted, they flash red and green for a moment before the new numbers appear. This is especially common right before a game or tournament starts.
Since we’re still in the early stages of e-sports betting, the market is still volatile compared to more traditional sports betting. The susceptibility to group think and natural biases help shape that volatility. We simply don’t have sufficient data to make strong predictions on how teams will perform at any given tournament. Dominant teams can falter and underrated teams can pull an upset—even at the highest stakes. That’s part of the fun of e-sports betting.