One thing you hear across countless industries is that past performance does not guarantee future results. As a gambling platform, we fully endorse this view. But we’re also sports fans, and every so often, a team generates so much hype up that it’s easy to get swept up in overly optimistic expectations heading into a new season.
The NFL, with its passionate fanbase, is particularly vulnerable to groupthink, particularly some of our most annoying NFL fanbases. A dominant previous season, blockbuster offseason acquisitions, or compelling headlines can quickly send expectations soaring. In this article, we’ve looked back through the archives to highlight five memorable NFL teams that entered the season surrounded by hype, only to fall dramatically short of expectations.
2002 St. Louis Rams
Between 1999 and 2001, the St. Louis Rams were in their prime. With two-time MVP quarterback Kurt Warner at the helm, they went 37-11 and reached the Super Bowl twice during those three remarkable seasons—an era in their explosive offense became known as the “Greatest Show on Turf”.
Expectations were understandably high for the Rams to continue their dominance in 2002. Oddsmakers installed them as heavy +350 favourites to win the Super Bowl, and with core players such as Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Orlando Pace still in place, there was little reason to anticipate such a dramatic decline. Their pre-season win total of 11 further illustrates just how highly the Rams were regarded entering the season.
The collapse was immediate, with St. Louis starting the season 0-5. Warner started the first four games before breaking a finger, but even before the injury, the reigning MVP was struggling badly. In seven appearances, he threw for 1,431 yards with just three touchdowns vesus 11 interceptions. His passer rating plummeted from 101.4 in 2001 to 67.4 in 2002, and the Rams went 0-6 in his six starts.
Backup quarterback Jamie Martin appeared in five games but suffered a knee injury, opening the door for Marc Bulger. Bulger helped salvage the season, leading the Rams to win in six of his seven starts. But he was also injured late in the year, and the early-season damage proved too great to overcome. St. Louis ultimately finished 7-9, four wins below its preseason expected total, and missed the playoffs.
The Rams’ dominance from 1999 through 2001 clearly contributed to the lofty expectations surrounding them in 2002. But sustained success can also inflate a team’s perceived value, particularly when bettors assume the previous season’s performance will carry over to the next; even a roster loaded with established stars can unravel quickly, and the 2002 Rams are a prime example of how difficult it can be to anticipate when a dominant run will come to end.
2003 Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders were on an upward trajectory in the early 2000s, culminating in a trip to Super Bowl XXXVII following the 2002 season. They boasted the NFL’s highest-scoring offense that year, and much of the roster remained intact for 2003. Handicappers and fans expected Oakland to carry that success into the new season, with the Raiders entering at +1200 to win Super Bowl XXXVIII.
What those expectations underestimated, however, was the age of Oakland’s roster. Reigning league MVP QB Rich Gannon was 38, while star receivers Jerry Rice and Tim Brown were 41 and 37 respectively.
Gannon played just seven games before a shoulder injury ended his season, but his performance had declined considerably before the injury. His completion rate fell from 67.6% in 2002 to 55.6% in 2003, while his passer rating plunged from 97.3 to 73.5. The Raiders didn’t fare much better with their backups. Rick Mirer appeared in nine games and finished with just three touchdown passes against five interceptions.
The offense around Gannon also showed its age. After scoring a league-leading 450 points in 2002, Oakland managed just 270 in 2003—an average of 16.9 per game. The Raiders also converted only 30.4% of their third downs, ranking second-last in the NFL.
By the end of the season, the defending AFC champions had plummeted to 4-12, finishing 5.5 wins below their pre-season win total of 9.5. It was more than a one-year stumble. The Raiders wouldn’t return to the playoffs until 2016, making 2003 the beginning of a 13-season playoff drought.
2010 Minnesota Vikings
Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre spent the final two seasons of his career with the Minnesota Vikings. His first, in 2009, was remarkable. At age 40, Favre passed for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns with just seven interceptions, while posting a career-high passer rating of 107.2. He led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game, a stage they hadn’t reached since the 2000 season.
Favre returned in 2010, along with a strong core that included Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Pat Williams and Antoine Winfield. Expectations remained high, with Minnesota entering the season at +1400 to win the Super Bowl and carrying a preseason win total of 9.5.
Unfortunately for Vikings fans, Favre was unable to replicate his incredible 2009 performance. He went 5-8 as a starter, and passed for 2,509 yards, 11 touchdowns and 19 interceptions in 13 games. His passer rating fell to a career-low 69.9.
Those struggles showed in Vikings’ offensive stats as well, with the team scoring just 281 points in 2010 after putting up 470 the previous season. Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery and missed the first nine games, prompting Minnesota to acquire former Vikings star Randy Moss from New England in an attempt to bolster the passing attack. The reunion lasted just four games. Moss caught 13 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns before Minnesota abruptly waived him.
Then came a fitting symbol of a season that had completely unravelled. On December 12, a major snowstorm caused the Metrodome roof to collapse, forcing Minnesota’s game against the Giants to be relocated to Detroit. The Vikings lost 21-3.
A team that had come within one victory of the Super Bowl a year earlier ultimately finished 6-10, falling 3.5 wins short of its preseason total. Favre’s dramatic regression, injuries to key players and the failed Moss experiment all contributed to one of the NFL’s more memorable cases of lofty preseason expectations coming crashing down.
2011 Philadelphia Eagles
After finishing the 2010 season 10-6 and winning the NFC East title, the Eagles decided to build on the momentum with an aggressive offseason. They already had a talented roster featuring a resurgent Michael Vick, along with LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Peters and Trent Cole. Then, they loaded up with several high-profile additions.
All-Pro Nnamdi Asomugha, considered one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks at that time, was the headline signing. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie arrived from Arizona, while Jason Babin joined after recording 12.5 sacks with Tennessee. Defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins came over after winning the Super Bowl with Green Bay. The Eagles also added former Pro Bowl running back Ronnie Brown, former Pro Bowl receiver Steve Smith, and former Pro Bowl quarterback Vince Young, who was brought in to back up Vick.
Early on, Young famously dubbed the Eagles a “Dream Team,” and the media ran with it. After Philadelphia’s wild spending spree, the Eagles entered the 2011 season third on the Super Bowl futures market, behind only New England and Green Bay. Their regular season win total was set at 10.5.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, their collection of talent never translated into consistent results. They opened with a convincing 31-13 victory over St. Louis, but then lost four straight games. By Week 13, the supposed Dream Team had fallen to 4-8 and was on the verge of elimination from playoff contention.
Philadelphia finally found its form down the stretch, winning their final four games to finish 8-8, but the late surge wasn’t enough. The Eagles fell short of their 10.5-win preseason projection and missed the playoffs altogether, turning one of the most hyped offseasons in NFL history into one of the league’s most memorable disappointments.
2019 Cleveland Browns
You don’t have to look far back to remember the Browns’ infamous flop in 2019. After finishing the 2017 season 0-16, Cleveland began gaining momentum with a promising young core that included QB Baker Mayfield, RB Nick Chubb and DE Myles Garrett. Mayfield fueled the optimism after throwing for 3,725 passing yards and 27 touchdowns during his rookie season.
In the 2019 offseason, the Browns made headlines by acquiring Odell Beckham Jr. from the Giants, pairing him with Jarvis Landry to create what looked like one of the NFL’s most dangerous receiving duos. Cleveland also signed defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson to bolster a defensive front that already included Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi. Former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt was another high-profile addition. On paper, it was an embarrassment of riches.
The hype was infectious, and the Browns entered the season at +2000 to win the Super Bowl despite having not made the playoffs since 2002. Cleveland also promoted offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens to head coach after Mayfield and the offense had flourished under him during the second half of 2018. Suddenly, a franchise that had gone winless just two years earlier was being talked about as a legitimate contender.
The season opener was ominous. The Tennessee Titans entered as 5.5-point underdogs and crushed Cleveland 43-13. Mayfield threw three interceptions, while the Browns committed 18 penalties for 182 yards. By the midway point of the season, Cleveland had stumbled to 2-6. The Browns briefly regained some momentum but ultimately finished 6-10 and ended the season on an embarrassing low.
The final game reinforced just how far they had fallen short of the preseason expectations. Cleveland lost 33-23 to the 1-14 Cincinnati Bengals, bringing a merciful end to one of the NFL’s most overhyped seasons. Their 6-10 record fell three wins short of the 9-win preseason total, and Kitchens was fired after just one season as head coach.
All of these examples serve as reminders that even the NFL’s most talented teams are susceptible to collapses when expectations are soaring. These dramatic flops may be rare, but they show why preseason hype should always be approached with a degree of caution. Past success, star-studded rosters and blockbuster acquisitions can all make a team look unbeatable on paper, but ultimately, every new NFL season has to be won on the field.